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Local hero Paul Bonhomme wants to give it his all at the first Red Bull Air Race in London. But how do his chances look for a third win in the season? Three reasons why Bonhomme will win on July 29 – and as many for why he’ll lose.

Pro: Home-ground advantage for Bonhomme

At the first Red Bull Air Race in London the audience will be cheering Bonhomme en bloc – even though there are two other Brits competing alongside him. While the 42-year-old leads the overall table by 26 points, his compatriots have so far been cruising through the air with comparative comfort: with five points, Steve Jones is sixth overall, Nigel Lamb, without points.

Contra: Mangold and Besenyei out for revenge

The first five races were more or less exclusively decided amongst three pilots – and correspondingly their placings are tight: Mike Mangold is two and Peter Besenyei is six points behind Bonhomme. How dangerous the two are for Bonhomme is illustrated in their results so far: like the Englishman, Mangold has managed to get onto the podium in every race; Besenyei, also like Bonhomme, has won twice.

Pro: Bonhomme in the best form ever

In 2005 Bonhomme came fifth, in 2006 he was fourth overall – due to consistency rather than outstanding performances. In 2007 he has shown the same consistency on an even higher level, making it onto the podium in every single race in the first half of the season. In the last four races he hasn’t finished in any worse place than second.

Contra: Races on home soil not always lucky for Red Bull Air racers

In 2006 the American Kirby Chambliss celebrated his finest victory in San Francisco – yet Peter Besenyei experienced his most bitter defeat in Budapest of all places in the same year. In front of one million spectators the Hungarian national hero touched an Air Gate, flew off course, and was disqualified – thus losing his chance of winning the overall title.

Pro: Bonhomme has the fastest plane …

… at least that was what defending champion Kirby Chambliss said. “Paul’s machine is the best suited for this year’s courses, which are faster and straighter than they were last year,” said Chambliss, who’s currently fourth overall.

Contra: Underdog attacks

In the last race at Interlaken the 36-year-old flight instructor from Korsika put an end to the comfortable order at the top: So far travelling light with zero points, Nicolas Ivanoff had a superior win in the qualifyings. In the finals, however, he took his goal of a huge breakthrough a little too literally, broke through an Air Gate pylon and was disqualified. Yet the underdog is now one of the favorites in London.